我国油棕业的坏消息

发表时间: 2005-8-09 16:06    作者: ThunderStorm    来源: LC金融超級市場

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• ThunderStorm (2005-8-09 18:25:11)

  http://www.biznewsdb.com/english ... ulan=08&kw=wwqq
  
  Malaysia to cut diesel imports with biofuel plan
  
  
  Malaysia, the world's largest producer of palm oil, plans to cut diesel imports by 500,000 tonnes a year with a plan to produce bio-diesel using a mix of palm oil and diesel, an industry official said on Aug 9.
  
  Under a government policy to be announced on Aug 10, palm oil would make up 5% of bio-diesel, Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak told reporters at a commodities-week event.
  
  Malaysia wants to encourage national use of a green fuel as climbing oil prices and dwindling supplies of petroleum make it commercially viable to produce palm diesel.
  
  Biofuels are taking on new importance worldwide as countries seek to cut emissions to meet the UN Kyoto Protocol, since burning the environmentally friendly fuel is considered to be carbon dioxide neutral and does not require emissions rights.
  
  "Tomorrow night," Najib said, replying to a question about when Malaysia's biofuels policy would be announced. The cabinet has been examing the plan since June.
  
  Asked what the composition of palm oil in the blend would be, he added, "It will be 5%." Yusof Basiron, head of the government-run Malaysian Palm Oil Board, said the policy is expected to save imports of about half a million tonnes of diesel each year, or about 10,000 barrels per day.
  
  He did not give an estimate of when the board would be ready to launch the biofuel commercially, but said, "We have to introduce it to the market; we have to get the policy accepted; we have to get the law amended to make it mandatory."
  
  Yusof added, "The fuel law -- we are still working it out with the government. There are so many aspects to the policy that have yet to be announced."
  
  Metal ester or other forms of processed liquid palm oil would most likely be used in the blended fuel, he said, adding that the mix of 5% palm oil would save on diesel imports.
  
  "Five percent is good," Yusof said. "It's half a million tonnes of consumption that we don't have to import in terms of petroleum diesel. It will be replaced by local renewable sources such as palm oil products."
  
  The plan was economically feasible, he added. "At RM1,300 a tonne, palm oil is a lot cheaper. Imported diesel is 1,700 or 1,800 to 2,000 per tonne."
  
  Officials said Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi was expected to announce the biofuel policy at a commodities industry awards function on Aug 10 night.

• ThunderStorm (2005-8-10 00:53:22)

  用食油自己生产biodiesel,谁敢试试？
  
  
  http://journeytoforever.org/biodiesel_make.html

• ThunderStorm (2005-8-10 01:02:02)

  http://www.greencarcongress.com/2005/05/asian_palm_oil_.html
  
  Asian Palm Oil for Euro Biodiesel
  6 May 2005
  
  
  
  
  Reuters. Asian palm oil could supply up to 20% of the European Union’s biodiesel needs by 2010, Pascal Cogels, the head of Fediol, the EU’s vegetable oils federation, told Reuters.
  
  The reason is price: palm oil is one of the least expensive vegetable oils.
  
  The winners in that scenario would be Malaysia, which produces 45% of the world’s palm oil and Indonesia (39%).
  
  
  The EU currently imports about 3.5 million tonnes of refined and crude palm oil every year, chiefly from those two countries.
  
  A 20% share of biodiesel would mean between some 300,000 and 350,000 tonnes of additional palm oil imports, according to Fediol.
  
  Rapeseed oil now makes up between 80%–85% of the EU biodiesel.

• ThunderStorm (2005-8-10 01:13:57)

  油棕股将会大起 ！？？:cool:

• ThunderStorm (2005-8-12 10:27:37)

  Biofuel policy a boon to palm oil industry: Sabri
  
  Updated : 12-08-2005
  Media : Business Times
  Story By : ZAIDI ISHAM ISMAIL
  via www.biznewsdb.com
  Mail this story or page to friend(s).
  
  THE three-pronged plan under Malaysia's National Biofuel Policy will contribute positively to the economy and environment, chairman of the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), Datuk Sabri Ahmad, said.
  
  Sabri said the long-awaited policy would help reduce Malaysia's dependence on fossil fuel, which eventually will contribute to a healthier environment.
  
  Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi on Wednesday announced the plan which will form part of the nation's biofuel strategy.
  
  The plan entails production and usage of biofuel for the transport and industrial sector, production of biofuel for export to Europe and commercialising biofuel using home-grown technology.
  
  In a statement issued yesterday, Sabri said the biofuel policy, which necessitates blending of up to 5 per cent of refined palm oil into diesel, will also boost Malaysia's palm oil industry.
  
  Biodiesel refers to chemically-reacted vegetable oils to produce methyl esters with properties similar to those in petroleum-based diesel. Biodiesel is made from rapeseed oil, soyaoil, palm oil, coconut oil, sunflower and other edible oils.
  
  Sabri expects demand for biofuel to increase sharply as more countries race to reduce greenhouse gases by 5 per cent relative to the 1990 level by 2008-2012.
  
  He said although only 5 per cent of palm oil would be blended with diesel, a total of 500,000 tonnes would be used for the purpose each year.
  
  A mere 5 per cent increase in the sale of palm oil would translate into RM1 billion additional revenue for the industry.
  
  Biodiesel is also seen as a solution to the escalating fossil fuel prices and its decreasing supply.
  
  ¡§The discovery of new fossil oil reserves has slowed down in recent years but the demand for fuel itself has increased,¡¨ he said.
  
  Sabri, who is also group chief executive of Golden Hope Plantations Bhd, hopes the Government would consider providing incentives such as corporate tax rebates for palm oil producers to venture into biofuel production.
  
  He said these companies would have to invest heavily on research and development and new equipment.
  
  
  www.biznewsdb.com

• tekyong (2005-8-13 08:24:58)

  其实生物汽油在很多年前已经有了，只是我们不知罢了。
  
  B20  就是  80%石油 + 20%食油
  已经全世界通行。
  
  同样的 B50 就是 50% + 50%。
  
  我看过一篇报导，原来 即使是100% 食油的车油， 并不会影响车子的性能，引擎也不必改装。
  
  假如油价高居 USD65的话， 照理说 棕油是不可能跌破 350美元的。
  假如是的话，那么 用棕油提炼车油 会比 石油提炼车油 划算。到时可以用B100。
  
  至于 成本的数据我就没有了，
  至于要用 二手棕油 还是 一手棕油，"李深静" 没有说。
  
  [ Last edited by tekyong on 2005-8-13 at 03:17 PM ]

• ThunderStorm (2005-8-13 22:55:48)

  http://www.pipeline.to/biodiesel/bb/compare.html
  
  
  Biodiesel has physical and chemical properties similar to petroleum diesel, which allows it to be readily splash blended and used in conjunction with petroleum diesel. Biodiesel contains a similar number of BTUs (118,000 vs. 130,500 BTUs per equivalent translating to similar engine performance in torque and horsepower), but the fatty acid chains that comprise biodiesel are oxygenated and have a higher flash point than petroleum diesel. In addition, biodiesel contains virtually no sulfur or carcinogenic benzene. Overall, these factors make biodiesel a much cleaner burning fuel while being safer to handle and store than petroleum diesel. In tests conducted at the Colorado Institute for Fuels and High Altitude Engine Research, a 20% blend (B20) was found to reduce particulate discharge by 14%, total hydrocarbons by 13%, carbon monoxide by more than 7%, and sulfur dioxide by 20%.
  
  
  Emission Benefits
  Biodiesel reduces particulate matter, carbon monoxide, total hydrocarbon, and sulfur dioxide emissions. With the use of a catalytic converter, nitrous oxide emissions can be reduced as well.
  
  
  Engine Power
  The energy release of biodiesel is about the same as for petroleum diesel (118,000 vs. 130,500 BTUs). Therefore, engine torque and horsepower remain virtually the same.
  
  
  Conversion and Engine Adjustments
  None required. A changeover to B20 does not require any engine conversion or adjustments. Due to the solvent characteristics of biodiesel, a fuel filter change will most likely be required after the first few hours of operation due to the cleaning effects of biodiesel to the fuel tank, lines and injectors.
  
  
  Fuel Consumption
  Similar to petroleum diesel.
  
  
  Cetane
  Higher than petroleum diesel (53 vs. 42 for #2 diesel fuel), which will help reduce engine knocking and contribute to a smoother running engine.
  
  
  Lubricity
  Biodiesel has a much higher lubricity level than petroleum diesel and compensates for the loss of lubrication with the new low-sulfur and CARB petroleum diesel fuels.
  
  
  Winter Conditions
  Biodiesel Industries has developed a proprietary formulation for treating biodiesel to operate trouble-free in severe winter conditions.
  
  
  Safety in Handling and Storage
  Biodiesel is as safe or safer than petroleum diesel to handle or store. Biodiesel does not produce dangerous vapors at normal ambient temperatures, and can it be stored in the same containers and tanks as petroleum diesel.
  
  
  Environmental
  Biodiesel is safer for the environment than petroleum diesel. It is less toxic than ordinary table salt (one-tenth the level of toxicity per unit weight) and is as biodegradable as dextrose (sugar). The use of biodiesel does not contribute significantly to the amount of new greenhouse gases, since any carbon released is already in the carbon cycle, versus petroleum diesel which contributes millions of tons of new carbon annually derived from the lithosphere (earth).
  
  
  Sourcing
  The US currently produces an estimated surplus of 2 billion gallons of oils and tallows that would be available for biodiesel production.
  
  
  Energy Security
  Biodiesel is produced from renewable domestic resources and could supplement part of the US's dependency on foreign petroleum production. This could displace a proportionate amount of importation while securing new sourcing to support domestic industrial and commercial infrastructures dependent on diesel fuels.

• ThunderStorm (2005-8-13 23:10:28)

  这篇谈biodiesel的弱点，
  
  http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/analysispaper/biodiesel/
  
  Introduction
  
  The idea of using vegetable oil for fuel has been around as long as the diesel engine. Rudolph Diesel, the inventor of the engine that bears his name, experimented with fuels ranging from powdered coal to peanut oil. In the early 20th century, however, diesel engines were adapted to burn petroleum distillate, which was cheap and plentiful. In the late 20th century, however, the cost of petroleum distillate rose, and by the late 1970s there was renewed interest in biodiesel. Commercial production of biodiesel in the United States began in the 1990s.
  
  The most common sources of oil for biodiesel production in the United States are soybean oil and yellow grease (primarily, recycled cooking oil from restaurants). Blends of biodiesel and petroleum diesel are designated with the letter “B,” followed by the volumetric percentage of biodiesel in the blend: B20, the blend most often evaluated, contains 20 percent biodiesel and 80 percent petroleum diesel; B100 is pure biodiesel. By several important measures biodiesel blends perform better than petroleum diesel, but its relatively high production costs and the limited availability of some of the raw materials used in its production continue to limit its commercial application.
  
  History
  
  Rudolph Diesel was educated at the predecessor school to the Technical University of Munich, Germany. In 1878, he was introduced to the work of Sadi Carnot, who theorized that an engine could achieve much higher efficiency than the steam engines of the day. Carnot envisioned a cycle in which a gas is compressed, heated, allowed to expand, and then cooled. After the gas is cooled, the cycle begins anew. Mechanical energy is used to compress the gas and thermal energy to heat it. In turn, expansion of the gas yields mechanical energy, and its cooling yields thermal energy. The net result is conversion of thermal energy to mechanical energy.1
  
  Diesel sought to apply Carnot’s theory to the internal combustion engine. The efficiency of the Carnot cycle increases with the compression ratio—the ratio of gas volume at full expansion to its volume at full compression. Nicklaus Otto invented an internal combustion engine in 1876 that was the predecessor to the modern gasoline engine. Otto’s engine mixed fuel and air before their introduction to the cylinder, and a flame or spark was used to ignite the fuel-air mixture at the appropriate time.2 However, air gets hotter as it is compressed, and if the compression ratio is too high, the heat of compression will ignite the fuel prematurely. The low compression ratios needed to prevent premature ignition of the fuel-air mixture limited the efficiency of the Otto engine.
  
  Rudolph Diesel wanted to build an engine with the highest possible compression ratio. He introduced fuel only when combustion was desired and allowed the fuel to ignite on its own in the hot compressed air. Diesel’s engine achieved an efficiency higher than that of the Otto engine and much higher than that of the steam engine. It also eliminated the trouble-prone electric-spark ignition system. Diesel received a patent in 1893 and demonstrated a workable engine in 1897.3 Today, diesel engines are classified as “compression-ignition” engines, and Otto engines are classified as “spark-ignition” engines.
  
  Diesel’s motivation was not only to improve efficiency but also to bring the benefits of powered machinery to smaller companies. Steam engines were so large that only the biggest firms could afford them, and Diesel wanted to enable smaller firms to compete against larger, steam-powered firms. He used peanut oil as the fuel for his demonstration engines at the 1900 World’s Fair4 and thought that oils from locally grown crops would be used to power his engines.
  
  The early 20th century saw the introduction of gasoline-powered automobiles. Oil companies were obliged to refine so much crude oil to supply gasoline that they were left with a surplus of distillate, which is an excellent fuel for diesel engines and much less expensive than vegetable oils. On the other hand, resource depletion has always been a concern with regard to petroleum, and farmers have always sought new markets for their products. Consequently, work has continued on the use of vegetable oils as fuel.
  
  Early durability tests indicated that engines would fail prematurely when operating on fuel blends containing vegetable oil. Engines burning vegetable oil that had been transesterified with alcohols, however, exhibited no such problems and even performed better by some measures than engines using petroleum diesel. The formulation of what is now called biodiesel came out of those early experiments.
  
  The energy supply concerns of the 1970s renewed interest in biodiesel, but commercial production did not begin until the late 1990s. The National Biodiesel Board reported production of 500,000 gallons (32.6 barrels per day) in 1999 and 6.7 million gallons (437 barrels per day) in 2000.5 In 2003, the U.S. Congress proposed that, for tax purposes:
  
  The term “biodiesel” means the monoalkyl esters of long chain fatty acids derived from plant or animal matter which meet (A) the registration requirements for fuels and fuel additives established by the Environmental Protection Agency under section 211 of the Clean Air Act (42 U.S.C. 7545), and (B) the requirements of the American Society of Testing and Materials D6751.6
  
  That definition of biodiesel is used here, although other processes also can be used to produce high-quality diesel fuel from vegetable oil or animal fat. Performance and Emissions Characteristics
  
  One of the most important characteristics of diesel fuel is its ability to autoignite, a characteristic that is quantified by a fuel’s cetane number or cetane index, where a higher cetane number or index means that the fuel ignites more quickly.7 U.S. petroleum diesel typically has a cetane index in the low 40s, and European diesel typically has a cetane index in the low 50s.
  
  Graboski and McCormick8 have summarized several experimental studies of biodiesel characteristics. They report that the cetane number for biodiesel ranges from 45.8 to 56.9 for soybean oil methyl esters, with an average of 50.9. In comparison the cetane index for petroleum diesel ranges from 40 to 52. They imply that careful production control could result in biodiesel products with cetane numbers in the high end of the range, whereas petroleum diesel tends toward the low end of the range. U.S. refiners use the catalytic cracking and coking processes to increase gasoline output from oil refineries, yielding high-octane gasoline material but low-cetane diesel material.Lubricity, another important characteristic of diesel fuel, is a measure of lubricating properties. Fuel injectors and some types of fuel pumps rely on fuel for lubrication. One study, published in 1998 and cited by the National Biodiesel Board, found that one-half of samples of petroleum diesel sold in the United States did not meet the recommended minimum standard for lubricity.9 Biodiesel has better lubricity than current low-sulfur petroleum diesel, which contains 500 parts per million (ppm) sulfur by weight. The petroleum diesel lubricity problem is expected to get worse when ultra-low-sulfur petroleum diesel (15 ppm sulfur by weight) is introduced in 2006. A 1- or 2-percent volumetric blend of biodiesel in low-sulfur petroleum diesel improves lubricity substantially.10 It should be noted, however, that the use of other lubricity additives may achieve the same effect at lower cost.
  
  Biodiesel also has some performance disadvantages. The performance of biodiesel in cold conditions is markedly worse than that of petroleum diesel, and biodiesel made from yellow grease is worse than soybean biodiesel in this regard. At low temperatures, diesel fuel forms wax crystals, which can clog fuel lines and filters in a vehicle’s fuel system. The “cloud point” is the temperature at which a sample of the fuel starts to appear cloudy, indicating that wax crystals have begun to form. At even lower temperatures, diesel fuel becomes a gel that cannot be pumped. The “pour point” is the temperature below which the fuel will not flow. The cloud and pour points for biodiesel are higher than those for petroleum diesel.
  
  [ Last edited by ThunderStorm on 2005-8-13 at 11:12 PM ]

• ThunderStorm (2005-8-13 23:13:35)

  Vehicles running on biodiesel blends may therefore exhibit more drivability problems at less severe winter temperatures than do vehicles running on petroleum diesel.11 This is a potential concern during the winter in much of the United States. The solvent property of biodiesel can cause other fuel-system problems. Biodiesel may be incompatible with the seals used in the fuel systems of older vehicles and machinery, necessitating the replacement of those parts if biodiesel blends are used.12 The initial use of B20 or B100 in any vehicle or machine requires care. Petroleum diesel forms deposits in vehicular fuel systems, and because biodiesel can loosen those deposits, they can migrate and clog fuel lines and filters.13
  
  Another disadvantage of biodiesel is that it tends to reduce fuel economy. Energy efficiency is the percentage of the fuel’s thermal energy that is delivered as engine output, and biodiesel has shown no significant effect on the energy efficiency of any test engine. Volumetric efficiency, a measure that is more familiar to most vehicle users, usually is expressed as miles traveled per gallon of fuel (or kilometers per liter of fuel). The energy content per gallon of biodiesel is approximately 11 percent lower than that of petroleum diesel.14 Vehicles running on B20 are therefore expected to achieve 2.2 percent (20 percent x 11 percent) fewer miles per gallon of fuel.
  
  About 11 percent of the weight of B100 is oxygen. The presence of oxygen in biodiesel improves combustion and therefore reduces hydrocarbon, carbon monoxide, and particulate emissions; but oxygenated fuels also tend to increase nitrogen oxide emissions. Engine tests have confirmed the expected increases and decreases of each exhaust component from engines without emissions controls. Biodiesel users also note that the exhaust smells better than the exhaust from engines burning conventional diesel.15
  
  The increase in nitrogen oxide emissions from biodiesel is of enough concern that the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has sponsored research to find biodiesel formulations that do not increase nitrogen oxide emissions. Adding cetane enhancers— di-tert-butyl peroxide at 1 percent or 2-ethylhexyl nitrate at 0.5 percent—can reduce nitrogen oxide emissions from biodiesel, and reducing the aromatic content of petroleum diesel from 31.9 percent to 25.8 percent is estimated to have the same effect. In the case of petroleum diesel, the reduction in aromatic content can be accomplished by blending fuel that meets U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) specifications with fuel that meets California Air Resource Board (CARB) specifications. EPA diesel contains about 30 percent aromatics, and CARB diesel is limited to 10 percent aromatics. Nitrogen oxide emissions from biodiesel blends could possibly be reduced by blending with kerosene or Fischer-Tropsch diesel.16 Kerosene blended with 40 percent biodiesel has estimated emissions of nitrogen oxide no higher than those of petroleum diesel, as does Fischer-Tropsch diesel blended with as much as 54 percent biodiesel.17 These results imply that Fischer-Tropsch diesel or kerosene could be used to reduce nitrogen oxide emissions from blends containing 20 percent biodiesel, although the researchers did not investigate those possibilities. Blending di-tert-butyl peroxide into B20 at 1 percent is estimated to cost 17 cents per gallon (2002 cents), and blending 2-ethylhexyl nitrate at 0.5 percent is estimated to cost 5 cents per gallon.18
  
  Oxides of nitrogen and hydrocarbons are ozone precursors. Carbon monoxide is also an ozone precursor, but to a lesser extent than unburned hydrocarbons or nitrogen oxides. Air quality modeling is needed to determine whether the use of biodiesel without additives to prevent increases in nitrogen oxide emissions will increase or decrease ground-level ozone on balance.
  
  Most biodiesel emission studies have been carried out on existing heavy-duty highway engines. The effects of biodiesel on emissions from heavy diesel engines meeting EPA’s stringent Tier II emissions standards (slated for introduction in model year 2007) have not been determined, and the EPA has concluded that the results of biodiesel tests in heavy-duty vehicles cannot be generalized to light-duty diesel vehicles or off-highway diesel engines.19
  
  Biodiesel from virgin vegetable oil reduces carbon dioxide emissions and petroleum consumption when used in place of petroleum diesel. This conclusion is based on a life cycle analysis of biodiesel and petroleum diesel, accounting for resource consumption and emissions for all steps in the production and use of the fuel. NREL estimates that the use of soybean B100 in urban transit buses reduces net carbon dioxide emissions by 78.45 percent.20 The comparison of carbon dioxide emissions and energy use begins with soybean cultivation and petroleum extraction, proceeds with all applicable processing and transportation, and ends with combustion in the bus engine. The growth of the soybean plant is assumed to absorb as much carbon dioxide as is emitted by decomposition of crop residue after the harvest and by combustion of biodiesel in the engine.21 Petroleum-based chemicals and fuels are used to produce the soybeans, but soybean oil biodiesel contains energy from other sources, including solar energy. NREL estimates that B100 reduces life cycle petroleum consumption by 95 percent relative to petroleum diesel,22 assuming that the quantity of biodiesel is small enough not to affect production levels of soybeans or other crops. If crop production patterns changed significantly, then NREL's analysis might not be valid.
  
  Biodiesel Production and Costs
  
  Biodiesel can be produced by several processes. Vegetable oils or fats can be converted to fatty acids, which in turn are converted to esters. Oils or fats can also be converted to methyl or ethyl esters directly, using an acid or base to accelerate (catalyze) the transesterification reaction. Base catalyzation is preferred, because the reaction is quick and thorough. It also occurs at lower temperature and pressure than other processes, resulting in lower capital and operating costs for the biodiesel plant.
  
  The most common method of producing biodiesel is to react animal fat or vegetable oil with methanol in the presence of sodium hydroxide (a base, known as lye or caustic soda). This reaction is a base-catalyzed transesterification that produces methyl esters and glycerine.23 If ethanol is substituted for methanol, ethyl esters and glycerine are produced. Methanol is preferred, because it is less expensive than ethanol.24 The Energy Information Administration (EIA) uses a process-costing approach to model the impacts of net feedstock production costs plus capital and operating costs. The feedstock cost of the oil or grease is the largest single component of biodiesel production costs. Yellow grease is much less expensive than soybean oil, but its supply is limited, and it has uses other than fuel—for example, yellow grease is used as an animal feed additive and in the production of soaps and detergents. From 1993 to 1998, the average supply of yellow grease in the United States was 2.633 billion pounds, enough to make 344 million gallons (22,440 barrels per day) of biodiesel.25 EIA, however, assumes that competing uses would limit biodiesel production from yellow grease to 100 million gallons per year (6,523 barrels per day).26
  
  Table 1. Soybean Oil Prices as a Function of Soybean Oil Use for biodiesel Production, 2004-2013
  (2002 Dollars per Gallon)
  Printer Friendly Version
  Marketing Year  50 Million Gallons of Soybean Oil Used for Biodiesel Production  200 Million Gallons of Soybean Oil Used for Biodiesel Production  
  2004/05  1.95  2.22  
  2005/06  1.91  2.17  
  2006/07  1.87  2.15  
  2007/08  1.84  2.12  
  2008/09  1.86  2.20  
  2009/10  1.89  2.25  
  2010/11  1.94  2.35  
  2011/12  1.99  2.41  
  2012/13  2.06  2.47  
  
  EIA’s price projections for soybean oil are based on data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Office of Energy Policy and New Uses.27 The USDA estimated the effect on agricultural markets of a renewable fuels requirement for gasoline and diesel fuel by constructing two agricultural market forecasts: a renewable fuels standard case with, and a reference case without, biodiesel production from soybean oil. The EIA forecasts of soybean oil prices are based on an assumed quantity of oil used for biodiesel production in each forecast year (Table 1).
  
  In the renewable fuels standard case, the quotient of the increase in soybean oil prices and the quantity of soybean oil used for biodiesel production provides the rate of change in soybean oil prices with respect to the quantity of soybean oil input to biodiesel production. The most current baseline soybean oil prices, assuming no biodiesel production, are also obtained from the USDA.28 The baseline forecast and the estimated rate of change are used to construct a cost curve for soybean oil relative to biodiesel production.

• ThunderStorm (2005-8-13 23:14:28)

  The USDA does not forecast yellow grease prices, although in the past the prices of yellow grease and soybean oil have moved together. Monthly soybean oil price data are obtained from the USDA, and monthly yellow grease price data are obtained from the Jacobsen Publishing Company. Unweighted averages are used to construct annual prices. The results of a linear regression are:
  
  Yellow grease price = 0.49 x Soybean oil price .
  
  Table 2. Projected Prices for Yellow Grease, 2004-2013
  (2002 Dollars per Gallon)
  Printer Friendly Version
  Marketing Year  Price  
  2004/05  1.09  
  2005/06  1.07  
  2006/07  1.05  
  2007/08  1.04  
  2008/09  1.08  
  2009/10  1.10  
  2010/11  1.15  
  2011/12  1.18  
  2012/13  1.21  
  
  Table 3. Projected Production Costs for diesel Fuel by feedstock, 2004-2013
  (2002 Dollars per Gallon)
  Printer Friendly Version
  Marketing Year  Soybean
  Oil  Yellow Grease  Petroleum  
  2004/05  2.54  1.41  0.67  
  2005/06  2.49  1.39  0.78  
  2006/07  2.47  1.38  0.77  
  2007/08  2.44  1.37  0.78  
  2008/09  2.52  1.40  0.78  
  2009/10  2.57  1.42  0.75  
  2010/11  2.67  1.47  0.76  
  2011/12  2.73  1.51  0.76  
  2012/13  2.80  1.55  0.75  
  
  Yellow grease price projections (Table 2) are estimated by using soybean oil price projections in the above equation.
  
  
  NREL provided estimates of other components of biodiesel production costs, based on transesterification of oil with methyl alcohol catalyzed by sodium hydroxide, yielding methyl esters (biodiesel) and glycerol. Operating expenses were estimated at 31 cents per gallon (2002 cents), excluding the cost of the oil or grease and energy, and the sale of the glycerol was estimated to reduce the cost by 15 cents per gallon of biodiesel.29
  
  The biodiesel production process uses, for each gallon, 0.083 kilowatthours of electricity30 and 38,300 British thermal units (Btu) of natural gas.31,32 EIA estimates energy costs (in 2002 cents) of 18 cents per gallon in 2004 and 16 cents per gallon in 2005 and 2006.33 A new biodiesel plant is estimated to cost $1.04 per annual gallon of capacity. EIA assumes that the plant is financed by equity with an annualized return of 10 percent over 15 years. Treating the hypothetical income stream as an annuity over the 15 years, the estimated capital cost is $1.36 million per year, or 13.6 cents per gallon (2002 cents) at full output.
  
  The National Biodiesel Board claims that dedicated biodiesel plants with a total capacity of 60 to 80 million gallons per year (3,414 to 5,219 barrels per day) have already been built. In addition, 200 million gallons (13,046 barrels per day) of capacity are available from oleochemical producers, such as Proctor and Gamble.34,35 Biodiesel producers will produce up to 80 million gallons per year at a price just high enough to cover variable costs. The capacity in the oleochemical industry will not come on-stream unless the price of biodiesel is sufficiently high to draw methyl esters out of other uses. A comparison of total production costs of diesel fuel by type of feedstock is provided in Table 3.
  
  There is currently excess production capacity in the biodiesel industry. Petroleum refiners, on the other hand, use more than 90 percent of their capacity, and additional capital investments are needed to keep up with increasing demand and tightening product specifications, such as the transition in 2006 from a highway diesel sulfur limit of 500 parts per million to 15 parts per million. Soybean oil biodiesel has essentially no sulfur. Because soybean biodiesel producers have overcapacity and a product that more than meets the upcoming highway diesel sulfur limit, they need make no additional capital investments to produce output up to 80 million gallons in 2006 and beyond.36 The cost comparison in Table 3 is therefore between the cost of biodiesel, excluding capital, and the cost of petroleum diesel, including capital.
  
  Incentives for Biodiesel Production
  
  Table 4. Soybean Oil Biodiesel Production Costs and Subsidies, 2004-2006
  (2002 Dollars per Gallon)
  Printer Friendly Version
  Costs and Subsidies  Fiscal Year  
  2004  2005  2006  
  Variable Cost   2.55   2.54   2.49  
  CCC Base Production Payment  -0.43  -0.22  -0.00  
  Variable Cost of
  Base Production, Net   2.12   2.32   2.49  
  Variable Cost   2.55   2.54   2.49  
  CCC Additional
  Production Payment  -1.45  -1.46  -1.47  
  Variable Cost of
  Additional Production, Net   1.10   1.08   1.12  
  
  Table 5. Yellow Grease Biodiesel Production costs and Subsidies, 2004-2006
  (2002 Dollars per Gallon)
  Printer Friendly Version
  Costs and Subsidies  Fiscal Year  
  2004  2005  2006  
  Variable Cost   1.42   1.41   1.39  
  CCC Base Production Payment  -0.27  -0.14  -0.00  
  Variable Cost of
  Base Production, Net   1.15   1.27   1.39  
  Variable Cost   1.42   1.41   1.39  
  CCC Additional
  Production Payment  -0.89  -0.90  -0.91  
  Variable Cost of
  Additional Production, Net   0.53   0.51   0.48  
  
  For the past several years, the USDA has offered grants for biodiesel production through the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC). The CCC payments for expansion of biodiesel production in the fiscal years37 2004-06 are $1.45-$1.47 (2002 dollars) per gallon for soybean oil biodiesel (Table 4) and 89-91 cents per gallon for yellow grease biodiesel (Table 5). Base production payments apply to production up to the level of the prior fiscal year, and additional production payments are for production above the level of the prior fiscal year. CCC payments for producers with output levels of 65 million gallons per year or less are shown in Tables 4 and 5. Payments for output levels above 65 million gallons per year are approximately 30 percent lower than the values shown in Tables 4 and 5.
  
  The CCC payments effectively reduce the variable cost of additional soybean oil and yellow grease biodiesel to $1.10 and 53 cents per gallon, respectively, in fiscal year 2004. Additional units produced in fiscal year 2004, however, become base units in fiscal year 2005 and are eligible only for much smaller, and declining, base production payments. The variable cost of soybean oil and yellow grease biodiesel added in fiscal year 2004 jumps to $2.32 and $1.27 per gallon, respectively, in fiscal year 2005.
  
  The transportation bill passed by the Senate on February 12, 2004, includes excise tax credits for biodiesel blending. The legislation allows diesel blenders to claim a credit against the applicable Federal motor fuels excise tax if a batch of diesel fuel contains biodiesel. If the blender uses biodiesel made from virgin oil, such as soybean oil, the credit is $1 (nominal dollars) per gallon of biodiesel. If the blender uses biodiesel made from nonvirgin oil, such as yellow grease, the credit is 50 cents per gallon of biodiesel.38 The proposed legislation also includes business income tax credits at the same rates for the blending of biodiesel from virgin or nonvirgin oil.39 The proposed Federal tax credits would expire after 2006.40
  
  Demand Projections
  
  EIA has developed lower- and upper-bound demand projections for biodiesel fuel. The lower-bound projections are based on an assessment of potential fleet demand for biodiesel to comply with the Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPACT). The upper-bound projections are based on biodiesel’s potential use as a lubricity additive.
  
  EPACT requires that a fraction of new purchases of light-duty vehicles41 for qualified fleets be alternative-fuel vehicles (AFVs). Qualified fleets include vehicles owned by Federal and State agencies and alternative fuel providers that are capable of being fueled at central locations. Law enforcement, emergency, and military vehicles are excluded from qualification. The AFV requirement is 75 percent for Federal and State governments and 90 percent for alternative fuel providers.
  
  In lieu of an AFV purchase, a fleet operator may purchase 450 gallons of pure biodiesel for use in a vehicle with GVWR over 8,500 pounds42 and may offset up to one-half of the number of required AFV purchases with biodiesel purchases. Approximately 32,000 new fleet vehicle purchases were covered under EPACT in 2001,43 and because purchases by alternative fuel providers are aggregated with government purchases, the 75-percent requirement was applied uniformly. The number of vehicle purchases covered under EPACT is assumed to grow at about the same rate as that projected for the light-duty vehicle stock, and every qualified fleet is assumed to use biodiesel purchases to offset one-half of the AFV requirement. Those assumptions result in EIA lower-bound projections for biodiesel demand of 6.5 million gallons (424 barrels per day) in 2010 and 7.3 million gallons (476 barrels per day) in 2020.
  
  EIA’s upper-bound projections recognize that low-sulfur diesel fuel marketed in the United States has lubricity problems and assume that the transition to ultra-low-sulfur diesel will make the problems worse. The upper-bound projections also assume that biodiesel will be blended into ultra-low-sulfur diesel at 1 percent by volume to improve lubricity, resulting in demand projections for biodiesel of 470 million gallons (30,654 barrels per day) in 2010 and 630 million gallons (41,959 barrels per day) in 2020. Sensitivity analysis of the higher biodiesel penetration rate indicated no significant impact on gasoline prices, but ethanol requirements to meet a proposed renewable fuels standard were reduced.44

• ThunderStorm (2005-8-13 23:14:52)

  Conclusion
  
  Biodiesel from yellow grease is closer to being cost-competitive with petroleum diesel than is biodiesel from soybean oil, but the available supply of yellow grease will probably limit its use for biodiesel production to 100 million gallons per year (6,523 barrels per day) or less. Unless soybean oil prices decline dramatically, it does not appear that biodiesel can be produced in large quantities at a cost that is competitive with petroleum diesel. The largest market for biodiesel probably will be as a fuel additive, because EPACT requirements are unlikely to increase significantly over the next 20 years. The ultra-low-sulfur diesel program will offer an opportunity for biodiesel as a lubricity additive and perhaps as a cetane booster as well. Biodiesel may also be marketed for applications in which reducing emissions of particulates and unburned hydrocarbons is paramount, such as school and transit buses. Because additives that improve diesel fuel properties can sell for a price above that of the diesel fuel, the cost disadvantage for biodiesel would not be as great in the additive market.

• ThunderStorm (2005-8-13 23:35:57)

  用Algae可提炼出比palm oil多数十倍的biodiesel ！！？？
  
  [url]http://www.answers.com/topic/biodiesel[/url]
  
  For a truly renewable source of oil, crops or other similar cultivatable sources would have to be considered. Plants utilize photosynthesis to convert solar energy into chemical energy. It is this chemical energy that biodiesel stores and is released when it is burned. Therefore plants can offer a sustainable oil source for biodiesel production. Different plants produce usable oil at different rates. Some studies have shown the following annual production:
  
  Soybean: 40 to 50 US gal/acre (40 to 50 m³/km²)
  Rapeseed: 110 to 145 US gal/acre (100 to 140 m³/km²)
  Mustard: 140 US gal/acre (130 m³/km²)
  Jatropha: 175 US gal/acre (160 m³/km²)
  Palm oil: 650 US gal/acre (610 m³/km²)
  Algae: 10,000 to 20,000 US gal/acre (10,000 to 20,000 m³/km²)
  
  
  The production of algae to harvest oil for biodiesel has not been undertaken on a commercial scale, but working feasibility studies have been conducted to arrive at the above number. Specially bred mustard varieties can produce reasonably high oil yields, and have the added benefit that the meal leftover after the oil has been pressed out can act as a effective and biodegradable pesticide. There is ongoing research into finding more suitable crops and improving oil yield. Using the current yields, vast amounts of land would have to be put into production to produce enough oil to completely replace fossil fuel usage
  
  [[i] Last edited by ThunderStorm on 2005-8-13 at 11:39 PM [/i]]

• ThunderStorm (2005-8-14 03:01:21)

  一公顷的Algae Pond 建造费 USD $80,000 。
  每年每公顷operating costs USD $12,000 。
  200,000 公顷的Algae Pond就能生产足够全美国运输用柴油。
  算一下，每年只需USD 24亿。
  
  看来palm oil没戏了，只能当食油。
  
  
  http://www.unh.edu/p2/biodiesel/article_alge.html

• ThunderStorm (2005-9-21 16:19:48)

  Mesdaq counter Carotech Bhd's shares were actively traded as its price rose seven sen, or 15.4%, to 52.5 sen yesterday on expectations it will gain from a major expansion of capacity to produce palm oil-based biodiesel.
  
  Carotech was positioned to capitalise on the projected huge demand for palm oil-derived biofuel, a stock brokerage said in a report yesterday. Several brokerages including Hwang-DBS Securities and CS First Boston issued bullish reports on Carotech yesterday.
  
  It is expected that Carotech will expand its production capacity of biofuel by five to eight times, which will cost between RM100mil and RM150mil. This expansion could give rise to strong earnings growth in the next three to four years.
  
  Carotech is better known for its production of tocotrienols, a palm oil-based vitamin extract and this side of the business is doing well.
  
  Despite having increased its capacity of tocotrienols to 40 tonnes a day this year from 17 tonnes previously, Carotech still faces a backlog of orders of four to five months.
  
  The company mainly extracts tocotrienols and carotene (vitamin A) from crude palm oil (CPO) while producing methyl ester and glycerine as by-products.
  
  Initially, it sold the methyl ester as raw material to oleochemical companies but it has recently started exporting the product to European biodiesel firms due to increasing demand, which resulted from high crude oil prices and environmental regulations.
  
  The European Union, for example, requires 2% biofuel usage by year's end and 5.75% by 2010.
  
  Carotech runs the only sizeable biofuel plant in Malaysia that feeds on CPO, which may enable it to have a lower cost of production compared with the biofuel plants being planned that feed on refined palm oil. Further, its refinery process is patented.
  
  The company is estimated to be trading at a price/earnings ratio of 10 times its calendar 2006 prospective earnings, which some brokers pitched as reasonable considering it is the purest biofuel stock in the country.
  
  The expansion plans for biofuel are also a catalyst for the share price of parent company Hovid Bhd, which owns 51.1% of Carotech.
  
  Hovid's share price was also up yesterday, ending the day eight sen higher at RM2.
  
  A brokerage said the group was aware of the risks of the aggressive expansion plan in such a short period of time but was confident that demand for biodiesel and tocotrienols would continue to increase.
  
  
  www.biznewsdb.com

• ThunderStorm (2005-9-27 01:35:44)

  KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)--Malaysia announced ambitious plans Monday to tackle Europe's growing biofuels market, but a senior European industry official warned that the plan faces several hurdles.
  
  Malaysia will simultaneously build three plants for producing palm oil-based diesel, and the bulk of the output will be exported, Plantation Industries and Commodities Minister Peter Chin Fah Kui said at a palm oil industry conference.
  
  But foreign oils like palm oil may struggle to break into the European market, said Raffaello Garofalo, secretary general of the European Biodiesel Board.
  
  The prospects for biodiesel in Europe and around the world are very bright, I would say. But today, I'm also here to tell you that (while) enthusiasm is more than justified...this enthusiasm has to be brought down to reality, Garofalo said.
  
  His comments came hours after Chin said the government-owned Malaysian Palm Oil Board intends tobuild three biodiesel plants, each with a capacity of 60,000 tons a year.
  
  All three plants will be built near ports - two in Port Klang in central Malaysia and one in Pasir Gudang in the south - for convenient exporting, Chin said.
  
  He said they will be built soon but didn't provide a specific time frame.
  
  There is high demand for biodiesel in the western world, especially in Europe, Chin said.
  
  MPOB had originally planned to build only one plant, but strong interest from local plantation companies to participate in the state-led program has prompted the government to enlarge it.
  
  The plants will be 50:50 joint ventures between MPOB and local companies that are yet to be named, Chin said. MPOB's investment will be about MYR60 million.
  
  Commercial production will begin within a year of launching construction, Chin said.
  
  The biodiesel produced will be a form of methyl ester derived from processed palm oil, which can be used directly in diesel engines.
  
  Further details of the project will be announced soon, Chin said.
  
  Rising global crude oil prices in recent months have fueled global interest in alternative energy sources.
  
  As the world's largest producer of palm oil, many in Malaysia view booming interest in biodiesel as another avenue to expand the consumption of the oil and reduce dependence on its food-related applications.
  
  Room For Palm Oil In Europe May Be Limited
  
  Malaysia's drive to penetrate the European market isn't surprising as the European Union is the leading producer and consumer of biodiesel.
  
  Total biodiesel output has been growing at a rate of around 35% a year for the past three years, the EBB's Garofalo said.
  
  The EBB is a nonprofit organization set up to promote the use of biodiesel in Europe. It has 25 member companies, who represent 80% of the region's total production.
  
  The growth of biodiesel in Europe is driven not just by a need for more sustainable energy sources but also by increasing consciousness about environmental issues, as biofuels are key to reducing carbon emissions in the transport sector, Garofalo said.
  
  Tax exemptions and other incentives by E.U. governments have also helped boost the popularity of biodiesel.
  
  But there are limitations and barriers on E.U. imports of non-indigenous oils like palm oil, Garofalo said.
  
  Already, rapid growth in biodiesel output is pushing the E.U. industry dangerously toward an overcapacity situation, he said.
  
  The E.U.'s strict standards for biodiesel could serve as both an advantage and disadvantage to palm oil.
  
  Palm oil has a low iodine content, which is a key quality measurement in the E.U.
  
  However, the E.U.'s specifications also require that that the biodiesel must not solidify in cold temperatures, a key point for palm oil, Garofalo said.
  
  Palm oil is known to turn cloudy and become solid in winter.
  
  And the biggest challenge that palm oil-based biodiesel may face in European countries may be political in nature.
  
  Biodiesel in Europe is now derived mainly from rapeseed oil. Europe's biodiesel industry is backed by subsidies, partly as a means of helping the domestic agriculture sector.
  
  We don't expect tomorrow the French and German governments will be eager to subsidize a product which is mainly produced abroad, or mainly produced with raw material coming outside of Europe. This is a matter of agriculture policy, Garofalo said.
  
  Widespread criticism of the palm oil industry by rights groups, which have say the production of palm oil damages rainforests and wildlife, may also have some impact on demand for palm oil-based biodiesel in Europe, he said.
  
  There is room for imports, but this room will always remain (within) a given limit, Garofalo said.
  
  
  www.biznewsdb.com